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Michael Thomas turned upfield, with nothing but open turf in front of him and Rams cornerback Marcus Peters already two steps behind. It was all the time Drew Brees needed – and all the room the Saints would need to leave the rest of the NFL in their dust.
Seventy-two yards later, the Saints had not only slayed the unbeatable Rams, but stolen their pedestal at the top rung of the league. Even before Thomas’ shootout-winning sprint, as the rest of the world – this writer, included – raved about how the Rams were rolling, the Saints were already laying claim to that lofty honor. And last Sunday, while the world watched, New Orleans finally had the chance to flex.
After falling to Tampa Bay in Week 1, the Saints won seven in a row, and not just by beating up on the bottom of the league. Over the past six weeks, the Saints strode confidently past five potential playoff teams (Falcons, Washington, Ravens, Vikings and Rams). Only two of those games (Ravens and Falcons) had even been within a score.
No NFL team is hotter halfway into the NFL season. That much is indisputable. But as the Saints head into the second half as overwhelming Super Bowl favorites, it’s worth asking: Can they really keep this up?
If Drew Brees continues to perform at his current pace, it may be impossible for any NFL defense to catch up. The NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards has, in pretty much every sense, never looked better.
Brees has always piled up yards. But in his 18th season, his efficiency in piling up those yards has skyrocketed. His completion percentage (76.3) not only paces the league, but it’s nearly four percentage points better than his career high. That number isn’t the product of checkdowns and dumpoffs, either. With an adjusted yards per attempt of 9.5, Brees is actually throwing down the field more now than ever in his career. He just happens to be completing just about all of those passes.
Throughout his Hall of Fame career, Brees’ propensity to give some of those passes away to the other team has been one of his few weaknesses. Before last season, he’d averaged nearly 15 interceptions per season over the past 15 years. But in 2018, his miniscule interception rate (0.4 percent) is among the lowest ever for a quarterback at the midway point of a season. The one pick he has this season, against the Vikings, was thrown just as he was crushed by Minnesota’s pass rush.
Needless to say, Brees has been basically perfect, and the rest of the Saints offense has followed his electrifying lead. The offensive line has been among the league’s best. Running back Alvin Kamara is averaging two fewer yards per touch than his breakout 2017 season, but is already just one touchdown short of his total from a year ago. Thomas, meanwhile, has been the NFL’s most reliable wideout by an irrefutable margin, with an 88.7 percent catch rate that leads the league by a massive margin, in spite of an average separation of 4.6 yards that ranks among the lowest in the league.
To beat the Saints, shutting down their offense is basically a fool’s errand. You can only hope to outgun them. Luckily for the rest of the NFL, that’s not the most impossible proposition. It might be the only way the Saints don’t win the Super Bowl.
Against top passing attacks, the Saints defense has left quite a bit to be desired. Los Angeles, Minnesota, Atlanta and Tampa Bay – all of which rank in the top-six in passing offense this season – each torched the New Orleans secondary for at least 338 yards in their matchup. Only one of those teams, however, managed to actually beat the Saints.
Still, it’s the only vulnerability the Saints have shown through eight weeks. For as bad as their secondary has been, their run defense is actually the best in the league by a wide margin. The most an opposing running back has managed in a single game against them is 69 yards, and that came in Week 1.
If the Saints manage to figure out their secondary woes, well … good luck, NFL. Even in a historic season for passing offenses, this an offense with enough firepower to blow past anyone.
Half of the NFL season still remains. Plenty can happen in the span of eight weeks. But even with two months to figure them out and a struggling secondary to exploit, it’s hard to imagine anyone keeping up with the Saints at this point.
BEST BET OF WEEK 10
Falcons (-6) over Browns. In winning three in a row, Atlanta sure seems to have regained its mojo. The Falcons beat up on Washington a week ago, and they’re probably champing at the bit to face a Browns team that’s been beat up by good offenses in each of the past two weeks. Matt Ryan is having one of the quietest MVP-caliber seasons in years. He’s currently on pace to smash his career-high numbers in passing yards, touchdowns and completion percentage – a mark he set in his 2016 MVP season.
Season record: 5-4
Last week: New England (-3) over Green Bay – WIN
FANTASY PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals. If the Bengals have any chance of keeping up with Drew Brees and the Saints, then they’re going to have to gain a ton of yards through the air. With A.J. Green out, Boyd is the likely beneficiary. He’s actually been almost as consistent as Green this season, with at least six catches or 62 yards in five of eight games. Unless John Ross suddenly becomes reliable, Boyd should rack up receptions this week.
Here’s a few other fantasy must-starts for Week 10 …
Quarterback: Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers. Lately, Rivers has rolled over the Raiders, and considering their current state, it’s safe to expect another big performance out of him. No team in the NFL has allowed more net yards per attempt.
Running back: Duke Johnson, RB, Browns. Finally, Duke has been unleashed … or so we think. New Browns offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens seemed to know what we had last week, when Johnson had 10 touches of 84 yards and two touchdowns.
Wide receiver: Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers. Allen’s season is following the same trajectory it did a year ago, when he exploded down the stretch. Last week, he had his first 100-yard game since Week 1. This week, don’t be surprised if he scores for the first time since that same debut.
Tight end: Jack Doyle, TE, Colts. Eric Ebron has put on a show for much of the season, but Doyle is the tight end Andrew Luck trusts most. Upon his return, Ebron’s snap counts diminished significantly. This week, against a tough secondary, Doyle should be a safe outlet.
THIS WEEK IN … HISTORIC INTERCEPTION STATS
One in every nine throws Nathan Peterman has made as the Buffalo Bills quarterback has been intercepted. In his first 95 pass attempts, Peterman was picked off 11 times. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown 11 interceptions over his last 993 pass attempts. Three of those 11 Peterman interceptions were returned for touchdowns, equal to Peterman’s career passing touchdowns total.
RE-PICKING THE PLAYOFFS
To my own stunned disbelief, my preseason playoff picks still hold up, if you’re willing to overlook my confidence in the Jaguars. But to see how much has changed – and humble brag a bit – let’s re-pick the playoff picture, knowing what we know now.
AFC West: ChiefsPreseason prediction: Chiefs
AFC North: SteelersPreseason prediction: Bengals
AFC East: PatriotsPreseason prediction: Patriots
AFC South: TexansPreseason prediction: Texans
AFC Wild Cards: Chargers, BengalsPreseason prediction: Chargers, Jaguars
NFC West: RamsPreseason prediction: Rams
NFC North: VikingsPreseason prediction: Vikings
NFC East: EaglesPreseason prediction: Eagles
NFC South: SaintsPreseason prediction: Saints
NFC Wild Cards: Panthers, BearsPreseason prediction: Falcons, Packers
NFC title game: Saints over RamsPreseason prediction: Vikings over Saints
AFC title game: Chiefs over ChargersPreseason prediction: Patriots over Chiefs
SUPER BOWL PREDICTION: Saints over Chiefs
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