Former O.C. GOP Chairman Scott Baugh won’t run for congress in 2020

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A presumed Republican front-runner in the GOP’s fight to retake Orange County’s coastal 48th Congressional District has decided not to run in 2020.

Former county Republican Chairman Scott Baugh said he made the decision in January after mulling a challenge to freshman Rep. Harley Rouda (D-Newport Beach), who won the once-conservative district in November as part of a countywide blue wave that saw the GOP swept from federal power in the region.

“The timing and circumstances aren’t right,” Baugh said.

Baugh lost a bid for the 48th Congressional District in the June primary, when he was challenging his former political mentor, 30-year Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher. Baugh finished fourth, trailing Rouda, the race’s eventual winner, by only 2,585 votes. That came even though Democrats spent about $1.8 million more against Baugh than Republicans spent against Rouda.

During Baugh’s brief campaign, he nabbed endorsements from a handful of prominent Republicans who viewed him as a better candidate than Rohrabacher. Election results later revealed that thousands of right-leaning voters in the district cast ballots for Rouda, supplying more split-ballots that helped a Democrat than any other House race in the county.

Baugh declined to detail why he believes the timing and circumstances won’t be good for him next year.

Republicans, who once were dominant in the county, now face a difficult fight to retake the four Orange County House districts they lost last cycle. The GOP surrendered the seats despite the fact that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to vote in midterm elections. Rouda won CA-48 by nearly 21,000 votes and 7.2 percentage points, even though Republicans still held an 8.1-point voter registration advantage in the seat, making it, on paper, the most conservative House district in the county.

Political observers say the 2020 presidential election could bode even better for down-ballot Democrats – especially one where President Donald Trump, who failed to carry any Orange County House seat in 2016, is seeking reelection.

So far, the only candidate to declare for the 48th Congressional District is James Bradley, a Laguna Beach businessman who was a political unknown until he finished third in California’s 2018 U.S. Senate primary as the top GOP vote-getter.

Baugh, who served in the state Assembly from 1995 to 2000, said he’ll spend the next couple years trying to grow business at his law firm and travel with his family.

Might he consider another congressional run down the line?

“You don’t ever rule something out like that,” Baugh said.

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