Thursday, September 13, 2018

An early look at Breeders’ Cup Classic early favorites

Even without Triple Crown champion Justify, this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 3 at Churchill Downs is shaping up to be one humdinger of a horse race.

Even though it says here that Horse of the Year won’t be in play – Justify’s status as a lock for the award is being disputed on many internet message boards – the 35th Classic, on paper, is shaping up to be just that. It looks to be a classic race featuring some of the best horses in training.

We’ll go alphabetically with the major players that have raced recently, which is apropos because our first horse was the 3-1 favorite when betting closed in the first Breeders’ Cup Future Wagers pool:

ACCELERATE

The 5-year-old son of Lookin At Lucky has won four of five starts this year, and he joined Game On Dude (2013) and Lava Man (2006) as the only horses to sweep Southern California’s Big Three – the Santa Anita Handicap, Gold Cup at Santa Anita (formerly the Hollywood Gold Cup) and Pacific Classic – in the same year this summer when he won the Classic by a record 12 1/2 lengths.

This is a horse that has improved a ton with maturity. Just last summer, trainer John Sadler thought his ceiling was a mile and an eighth. He ran him in the 2017 Pacific Classic, at a mile and a quarter, because he’d just beaten Arrogate in the San Diego Handicap and he felt compelled to do so. Now he’s won at a mile and a quarter three times and he might just be the best dirt horse in America.

Kosta Hronis, who owns Accelerate along with his brother Pete, didn’t get into the horse racing business until 2010, but he knows enough now to realize how special it is to have a horse like Accelerate.

“We don’t get to see a lot of 5-year-old horses anymore,” he said. “So this was great that he was able to stay on the track for another year and really mature and get better, and that’s what he’s done.”

CATHOLIC BOY

It’s tough enough to win a Grade I race on dirt, turf, or synthetic, but to win one on two of the three surfaces is not your everyday accomplishment. But Catholic Boy has done it, and he could be the horse to beat in the Classic considering he appears to be peaking at just the right time.

Catholic Boy, a 3-year-old More Than Ready colt, won the Grade I Belmont Derby on turf July 7 at Belmont Park and followed that up with a victory in the Grade I Travers Stakes, the Mid-Summer Derby, over Saratoga’s main track Aug. 25.

Trainer Jonathan Thomas believes the Classic’s mile and a quarter distance will be right up Catholic Boy’s alley.

“(Last year), the Travers would have been the last thing on our mind,” he said. “We thought we had a nice, two-turn grass horse, which was perfectly fine. We’ve had this horse since he was a weanling, and to see his development … it’s like (having drafted) an NFL player out of elementary school.”

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DIVERSIFY

The Whitney Stakes winner has speed. Tons of it. He’s likely to prep for the Breeders’ Cup in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup, a race he won last year, on Sept. 29 at Belmont Park and then head to Churchill Downs as one of the Classic favorites.

Diversify, a 5-year-old gelded son of Bellamy Road, has been a huge shot in the arm for 65-year-old trainer Richard Violette Jr., who has been battling cancer since 2015.

“What we’ve gone through the last few years, I’m a very, very lucky man,” Violette told Saratoga publicity. “I can’t tell you how many people rallied behind me – people I didn’t know, people I knew very casually, my best friends, and my family’s been outstanding.”

MIND YOUR BISCUITS

The 5-year-old son of Posse, who won the Grade I Golden Shaheen at Dubai in spectacular come-from-behind fashion March 31 and finished third and second, respectively, in the past two Breeders’ Cup Sprints, looks like he might try to negotiate two turns again after a second-place finish behind Diversify in the Whitney – his first career start at two turns.

Mind Your Biscuits, trained by Chad Summers, arrived at Churchill Downs on Thursday as his handlers prepare him for a start in the $200,000 Grade III Lukas Classic on Sept. 29. He was a juicy 40-1 in the first Futures pool.

“I think he’s done really well going two turns,” Summers told Churchill Downs publicity. “Obviously to win the Classic would be a big deal, but we’ll see what happens after the Lukas Classic. The race is shaping up to be pretty competitive, which is a good thing. It’ll be a true test, but Mind Your Biscuits is doing great.”

Follow Art Wilson on Twitter at @Sham73

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