Nineteen years ago, in the first round of my first-ever fantasy football draft, I looked my dad’s boss in the eyes and called him an “idiot”.
I was 10 years old, the youngest person at the draft by at least two decades. A few losing seasons in his work fantasy league had made my dad desperate, and so, he turned to his football-obsessed, preteen son, whom he knew pored over newspaper box scores every Monday morning, just to add up his fantasy results.
His co-workers were admittedly leery. (Looking back now, I would’ve been, too.) But it didn’t take long – for me, or them – to realize I was the most prepared player in the room. I’d spent months running my own mock drafts and memorizing cheat sheets from the well-worn pages of a fantasy football magazine. (Boy, do I miss those.)
So when my dad’s boss, picking one slot before us, announced he was choosing Brett Favre, the words escaped my mouth before I could process them. Two decades later, my dad hasn’t let me forget.
“What an idiot!” I blurted, as jaws of the adults in the room dropped. A few laughed. My dad was not one of them. His face was beet red. After the moment passed, he pulled me into the other room. He was not happy.
“You can’t say that to my boss!” he said.
“But Dad,” I responded, “he drafted a quarterback in the first round!”
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As it turned out – and as my dad later admitted – I was right. We chose Marshall Faulk with the next pick. He went on to lead the league in fantasy points. Later, we picked up a quarterback on the waiver wire who was slated to take over for the injured Trent Green. His name was Kurt Warner.
Warner won MVP that year, and we finished in second, cementing my reputation in a league I would play in for the better part of a decade. Favre threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and my dad’s boss, apparently demoralized, left the work league after that season.
Since, I’ve dutifully followed my own adolescent intuition when it comes to fantasy. Drafting a quarterback early in a draft, I believe, is an act worthy of unapologetic taunting, whether that person happens to sign your dad’s paychecks or not.
Never has this rule been more true in fantasy football than in 2018. We’ve adjusted our fantasy expectations for quarterbacks somewhat in recent years, but we’re still drafting signal callers far earlier than the tremendous depth at the position would suggest. With so much information and so many fantasy stats at our disposal, there’s no reason why this should still be happening.
Winning your fantasy football league is all about exploiting value, whenever and wherever you can. When it comes to quarterbacks, that means waiting as long as humanly possible to draft one. Even if it means entrusting Alex Smith to lead your fantasy team.
To illustrate my point, let’s consider the case of Jared Goff. Coming off of a dreadful rookie season, he went undrafted in most standard fantasy leagues a year ago. But under Sean McVay, Goff ended up a reliable fantasy starter. He finished the season tied with Dak Prescott as QB11.
Tom Brady, meanwhile, was drafted in the third round of most fantasy leagues in 2017. He led the league in passing yards and finished as the third-best quarterback in fantasy, behind only Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. Those who drafted Brady were probably happy with their decision.
But in most cases, their team would have been better off picking Goff in the final round than Brady in the third. The gap between Goff, who could’ve been had on the waiver wire, and Brady was a slim 40 points. That’s 2.5 points per game. Down the list of fantasy quarterbacks, the gap narrows even further. Drew Brees (QB8) outscored Case Keenum (QB14) by just 25 total points a year ago. Blake Bortles (QB13), meanwhile, only trailed Brees by 15 – a difference of less than one point per game.
.@MikeTagliereNFL names several players to target and avoid in your #FantasyFootball drafts. pic.twitter.com/vstNRq6RjD
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) August 16, 2018
While elite real-life quarterbacks are in short supply, fantasy quarterback is a treasure trove of depth. Matt Ryan, a former MVP, can be had in the 11th round, in the same range as Dolphins wideout DeVante Parker. Alex Smith, who finished as QB4 a year ago, is being drafted in the 13th. Bortles, a decent, plug-in starter in 2017, is going undrafted.
At other positions, the difference between the upper and middle class is massive, by comparison. Last season’s WR3 (Keenan Allen) and WR12 (Golden Tate) differed by 59 points. At running back, meanwhile, the RB3 (Alvin Kamara) and RB12 (Dion Lewis) were separated by a whopping 117 points. That’s equal to the total fantasy value of Jonathan Stewart in 2017. It’s also a difference of more than seven points per game.
In spite of this incredible depth at quarterback – and lack thereof elsewhere – someone is still going to draft Aaron Rodgers before the third round of your draft ends. Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson will follow soon after. Let them go.
And when you’ve reached the 11th round, your roster properly loaded with running backs and receivers, draft Philip Rivers, a quarterback who’s finished in the top 10 at the position in each of the past four seasons.
Then, as my 10-year-old self would advise, feel free to taunt your friends into oblivion.
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FIVE VALUES TO TARGET IN YOUR DRAFT
The first step in finding fantasy value is to familiarize yourself with ADP (Average Draft Position). Here are a few players I’m confident will outperform their ADP in 2018:
1. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers. Allen saw 159 targets in 2017, finishing as the third-highest scoring receiver in fantasy, and that was with a healthy Hunter Henry at tight end. One of the best route runners in the league, Allen will be leaned on even more this season – especially in the red zone – with Henry out. He’s being drafted at 16th overall, but has top-10 potential assuming he stays healthy.
2. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints. A four-game suspension means you won’t have Ingram for the first month of the season. But if Ingram equaled his pace from last season over 12 games, he would still finish with 208.5 points – good enough for RB13 last year. Alvin Kamara is getting plenty of love, but Ingram is still a huge part of the Saints offense. He’s currently being drafted 49th overall. If he ends up a top-15 back, he’s a third-round pick you can take in the fifth round.
3. Rex Burkhead, RB, Patriots. Burkhead has been dealing with a knee injury this preseason, which could suppress his value further. But if healthy, he could be a potential league-winner as the favorite to lead the Patriots backfield in touches. He played in just 10 games last season, but scored fantasy points at the same pace as Falcons running back Devonta Freeman. He’s being drafted in the eighth round. Freeman is a consensus second-rounder.
4. Marquise Goodwin, WR, 49ers. If you believe in Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan’s offense, one of San Francisco’s wide receivers stands to have a breakout season. Goodwin has reportedly had the best connection with Garoppolo this preseason, which isn’t hard to believe if you consider the eight targets per game he saw last season, with Garoppolo under center. Goodwin is being drafted as a WR4, at the end of the eighth round. In an explosive offense, he could easily finish as a WR2 this season.
5. Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots. Hogan was last year’s WR10 in his first eight games, and then injuries derailed the rest of his season. Now, he won’t be contending with Brandin Cooks for targets. New England didn’t exactly replace Cooks, and with Julian Edelman out for the first four games, Hogan will have a month to establish himself as Tom Brady’s top target. That’s a good spot to be in, fantasy-wise. Nonetheless, he’s somehow lasting until the seventh and eighth rounds in most fantasy drafts.
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